Ura Suji Caveat
After explaining how ura suji can help you divine a safe tile, today I’m going to tell you why that is hocum.
>If you’ve not read about ura suji yet, do that here first<
Ura suji works great if your opponent is optimizing for two-sided waits. For example, a 356 shape, cutting the 3 for efficiency. Or perhaps they have a 36 and draw a 7 so switch out the 3 to improve their wait. If that is the case, ura suji is a fine theory.
Let’s stick with this hypothetical 3 discard. That would suggest ura suji of 4-7 are dangerous. However, what if they had 36 in their hand and they needed to cut one of them? They would cut the 3 because 6 can accept more tiles into the hand. Then, let’s say their hand progresses well and they draw a 7 waiting on 5-8, so the 4-7 are not dangerous. Ura suji has not helped.
On the other hand, if a 5 is discarded particularly early, your alarm bells should already be ringing. It could be that they have a 235 or 578 shape. That would make 1-4 or 6-9 dangerous with a suji read. Now, throwing a 5 early is unusual unless your opponent is going for a particular hand shape and in this case, the risk of an outside hand or chanta is high so the 1 and 9 are ESPECIALLY dangerous. There you have combined two pieces of information (the early 5 discard and its suji) to work out not only potential dangerous tiles but also the degree of danger.
I keep saying how these are blunt tools. All of this mahjong theory is a blunt tool and you’re being asked to perform open heart surgery with it. Your only hope is to master the tool the best you can. It’s entirely your skills that will help you navigate your patient (hand) to safety.
Tomorrow… MORE ura suji ;)